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Will Semir Efendić be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
2%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- ▼1%
- 1w change
- ▲1%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Bećirović | 73% | ▲5% |
| Bakir Izetbegović | 21% | ▼6% |
Resolution criteria
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.