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Will Segolene Royal win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
3%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- 0%
- 1w change
- ▲1%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Raphael Glucksmann | 78% | – |
| Olivier Faure | 18% | – |
| Jérôme Guedj | 1% | – |
| Boris Vallaud | 1% | 0% |
| Francois Hollande | 1% | 0% |
| Philippe Brun | <1% | 0% |
| Carole Delga | <1% | 0% |
| Karim Bouamrane | <1% | – |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.
If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.