Home › Europe › Kraków Mayoral Election Winner
Will Rafał Sonik win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?
<1%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- 0%
- 1w change
- 0%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Łukasz Gibała | 87% | ▲2% |
| Monika Piątkowska | 14% | ▼1% |
| Michał Drewnicki | 1% | 0% |
| Aleksandra Owca | <1% | 0% |
| Grażyna Zofia Świat | <1% | – |
| Daria Gosek-Popiołek | <1% | – |
| Marianna Schreiber | <1% | 0% |
| Marta Ratuszyńska | <1% | – |
| Jan Hoffman | <1% | 0% |
| Bartosz Bocheńczak | <1% | – |
| Marian Banaś | <1% | 0% |
| Paweł Śliz | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.