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Will Podemos (PODE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
<1%Probability
- 1h change
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- 24h change
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- 1w change
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- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| PL | 66% | ▼1% |
| UPB | 34% | 0% |
| FE Brasil | 1% | 0% |
| MDB | 1% | – |
| MISSÃO | <1% | – |
| Avante | <1% | – |
| PSDB-CIDADANIA | <1% | – |
| PSOL-REDE | <1% | – |
| PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE | <1% | – |
| PDT | <1% | – |
| NOVO | <1% | – |
| PSD | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).