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Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
92%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- ▲5%
- 1w change
- ▲4%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 96% | ▲2% |
| Marine Le Pen | 92% | – |
| Édouard Philippe | 86% | ▲1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 84% | ▼1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 80% | ▼1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 68% | ▲2% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 65% | ▼1% |
| David Lisnard | 65% | ▲5% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 63% | ▼1% |
| François Hollande | 42% | ▼1% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 31% | – |
| Gabriel Attal | 29% | ▲5% |
Resolution criteria
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.