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Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
1%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- –
- 1w change
- 0%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 98% | 0% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 97% | 0% |
| Renan Santos | 1% | 0% |
| Romeu Zema | 1% | – |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 1% | 0% |
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 1% | – |
| Ronaldo Caiado | <1% | – |
| Fernando Haddad | <1% | 0% |
Resolution criteria
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).