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Will Jim Monahan win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
<1%Probability
- 1h change
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- 24h change
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- 1w change
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- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Sagal Abdi-Wali | 87% | – |
| Zack Polanski | 13% | ▼1% |
| Andrew Feinstein | <1% | – |
| Adam Harrison | <1% | – |
| Charlie Clinton | <1% | – |
| David Roberts | <1% | – |
| David Stansell | <1% | – |
| Georgia Gould | <1% | – |
| Gio Spinella | <1% | – |
| Hamza Chowdhury | <1% | – |
| James White | <1% | – |
| Keith Moffitt | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).