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Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
21%Probability
- 1h change
- ▼2%
- 24h change
- ▲3%
- 1w change
- ▲2%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Thomas | 32% | ▼6% |
| Alfred Cannan | 26% | ▼3% |
| Rob Callister | 9% | ▼5% |
| Alex Allinson | 2% | 0% |
| Lawrie Hooper | 1% | 0% |
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.