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Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- ▲1%
- 1w change
- ▲1%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” | 42% | 0% |
| PT | 11% | 0% |
| MUNDO-GB | 3% | – |
| FREPASNA | 2% | ▼1% |
| PS | 1% | ▼3% |
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).