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Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
<1%Probability
- 1h change
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- 24h change
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- 1w change
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- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Alberto Núñez Feijóo | 79% | – |
| Pedro Sánchez | 14% | 0% |
| Santiago Abascal | 5% | – |
| Isabel Díaz Ayuso | 3% | ▼1% |
| Yolanda Díaz | 1% | – |
| Carlos Cuerpo | <1% | – |
| Aitor Esteban | <1% | – |
| Borja Sémper | <1% | – |
| Carles Puigdemont | <1% | – |
| Cuca Gamarra | <1% | – |
| Ernest Urtasun | <1% | – |
| María Jesús Montero | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.