Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
37 outcomes · Closes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 90% | – |
| Édouard Philippe | 46% | ▼1% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 44% | ▲3% |
| Other | 33% | ▲1% |
| David Lisnard | 8% | ▲1% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 7% | – |
| François Hollande | 7% | – |
| Jordan Bardella | 7% | ▲1% |
| Gabriel Attal | 6% | – |
| Olivier Faure | 6% | – |
| Manuel Bompard | 5% | 0% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5% | – |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 5% | – |
| Éric Zemmour | 5% | – |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 4% | 0% |
| François Bayrou | 4% | 0% |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 3% | – |
| Juan Branco | 3% | 0% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 3% | – |
| Sarah Knafo | 3% | – |
| Ségolène Royal | 3% | – |
| Carole Delga | 3% | 0% |
| Élisabeth Borne | 3% | 0% |
| Clémentine Autain | 2% | – |
| Marine Tondelier | 2% | 0% |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2% | – |
| François Ruffin | 2% | – |
| Jean Castex | 2% | 0% |
| Clémence Guetté | 2% | 0% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2% | – |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 2% | – |
| François Asselineau | 2% | – |
| Valérie Pécresse | 2% | 0% |
| Gérald Darmanin | 1% | – |
| Xavier Bertrand | 1% | – |
| Michel Barnier | 1% | – |
| Mathilde Panot | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).