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Lima Mayoral Election Winner

23 outcomes · Closes

OutcomeProbability24h change
Rafael López Aliaga77%▲5%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca16%▲3%
Francis James Allison Oyague3%▼2%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype3%▲1%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera3%▲1%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli1%▼2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué<1%▼1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León<1%0%
Yehude Simón Munaro<1%0%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega<1%–
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra<1%–
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay<1%–
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez<1%–
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero<1%–
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino<1%–
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo<1%–
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar<1%–
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza<1%–
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo<1%–
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero<1%–
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez<1%–
Segundo Valdez Zavala<1%–
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés<1%–
Rafael López Aliaga · Last 7 days · low 68% · high 83%

Resolution criteria

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).

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