French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
21 outcomes · Closes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| François Hollande | 70% | ▲8% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 67% | ▲3% |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 43% | ▲2% |
| Michel Barnier | 10% | – |
| Élisabeth Borne | 9% | 0% |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 9% | 0% |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 9% | – |
| Jordan Bardella | 8% | – |
| Gérald Darmanin | 7% | – |
| Manuel Bompard | 7% | – |
| Carole Delga | 6% | – |
| Valérie Pécresse | 5% | 0% |
| Mathilde Panot | 3% | 0% |
| Jean Castex | 3% | 0% |
| François Bayrou | 2% | – |
| Gabriel Attal Resolved | 100% | ▲9% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon Resolved | 100% | ▲3% |
| Marine Le Pen Resolved | 100% | ▲2% |
| Olivier Faure Resolved | 100% | ▲50% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann Resolved | 100% | ▲13% |
| Éric Zemmour Resolved | 100% | ▲14% |
Resolution criteria
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.
Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.