US Midterms 2026: who will win?

Tue, Nov 3 · in 30 days

Market-implied probability: What do these percentages mean?

They are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

How to read these numbers →

Senate

66% chance Democrats take control

Republicans: 35% chance

▲3 pts in 7 days

Democrats’ probability of control

50%
Jul 2025Oct 2026

House

93% chance Democrats take control

Republicans: 8% chance

Democrats’ probability of control

50%
Jul 2025Oct 2026