Qui annoncera sa candidature à la présidence avant 2028 ?
29 issues · Clôture
| Issue | Probabilité | Variation 24 h |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | 89 % | 0 % |
| J.D. Vance | 66 % | ▼3 % |
| Andrew Yang | 66 % | – |
| Gavin Newsom | 65 % | – |
| Ted Cruz | 65 % | ▼1 % |
| Jon Ossoff | 61 % | ▲4 % |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 55 % | ▲1 % |
| Kamala Harris | 50 % | ▲2 % |
| Josh Hawley | 44 % | ▲4 % |
| Marco Rubio | 35 % | – |
| Hunter Biden | 26 % | – |
| John Fetterman | 26 % | – |
| Gina Raimondo | 21 % | ▼1 % |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 20 % | ▲2 % |
| Kim Kardashian | 19 % | – |
| Jon Stewart | 18 % | – |
| Steve Bannon | 18 % | – |
| George Clooney | 17 % | – |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. annoncera-t-il sa candidature à la présidence avant 2028 ? | 16 % | – |
| Tucker Carlson | 16 % | ▲1 % |
| Elon Musk | 15 % | – |
| Michelle Obama | 14 % | ▼1 % |
| Liz Cheney | 14 % | – |
| Bernie Sanders | 12 % | – |
| Zohran Mamdani | 11 % | – |
| Tim Walz | 10 % | – |
| Erika Kirk | 9 % | – |
| MrBeast | 9 % | – |
| Hillary Clinton | 4 % | – |
Critères de résolution (texte original, en anglais)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.