Probabilități în timp real

Acasă › Franța

Alegerile prezidențiale din Franța din 2027: cine va fi pe buletinul de vot?

46 rezultate · Se încheie

RezultatProbabilitateVariație 24 h
Jean-Luc Mélenchon96 %▲1 %
Nathalie Arthaud92 %▲7 %
Marine Le Pen92 %–
Édouard Philippe86 %▲1 %
Fabien Roussel84 %▼1 %
Éric Zemmour79 %▼2 %
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan66 %–
Bruno Retailleau65 %▲3 %
David Lisnard65 %▲5 %
Raphaël Glucksmann63 %▼1 %
François Hollande42 %▼1 %
Dominique de Villepin31 %–
Gabriel Attal29 %▲5 %
Marine Tondelier27 %–
François Ruffin25 %▼1 %
Xavier Bertrand15 %–
Matthieu Pigasse13 %▲1 %
Juan Branco12 %–
Olivier Faure11 %0 %
François Asselineau11 %–
Delphine Batho9 %–
Jordan Bardella8 %–
Jean-Michel Fauvergue8 %–
Bernard Cazeneuve7 %0 %
Élisabeth Borne7 %–
Sarah Knafo7 %–
Michel Barnier6 %–
Manuel Bompard6 %–
Jérôme Guedj6 %–
Yaël Braun-Pivet5 %0 %
Carole Delga5 %–
François Bayrou5 %–
Sébastien Lecornu5 %–
Bally Bagayoko5 %–
Manuel Valls4 %–
Philippe de Villiers4 %–
Ségolène Royal4 %–
Jean Castex4 %–
Mathilde Panot4 %–
Valérie Pécresse4 %–
Teddy Riner4 %▲3 %
Karim Bouamrane4 %0 %
Michel-Edouard Leclerc3 %–
Laurent Wauquiez3 %–
Gérald Darmanin2 %–
Clémentine Autain1 %–
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · Ultimele 7 zile · min 92 % · max 96 %

Criterii de soluționare (textul original, în engleză)

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Încorporează acest widget

Lipiți acest cod într-un articol sau pe o pagină. Widgetul se actualizează singur: probabilitatea implicită a pieței înainte de vot, în direct în seara alegerilor, apoi rezultatul oficial.

Previzualizare