Prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym

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Wybory prezydenckie we Francji 2027: kto znajdzie się na karcie do głosowania?

46 wyników · Rozstrzygnięcie

WynikPrawdopodobieństwoZmiana 24 h
Jean-Luc Mélenchon96%▲2%
Nathalie Arthaud92%▲7%
Marine Le Pen92%–
Édouard Philippe86%▲1%
Fabien Roussel84%▼1%
Éric Zemmour80%▼1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan67%▲1%
David Lisnard65%▲5%
Bruno Retailleau65%▲2%
Raphaël Glucksmann63%▼1%
François Hollande42%▼1%
Dominique de Villepin31%–
Gabriel Attal28%▲6%
Marine Tondelier27%–
François Ruffin26%–
Xavier Bertrand15%–
Matthieu Pigasse13%–
Juan Branco13%▲1%
Olivier Faure11%–
François Asselineau11%–
Delphine Batho9%–
Jordan Bardella8%–
Bernard Cazeneuve8%0%
Jean-Michel Fauvergue8%–
Élisabeth Borne7%0%
Sarah Knafo7%–
Michel Barnier6%–
Manuel Bompard6%–
Jérôme Guedj6%–
Yaël Braun-Pivet5%0%
Carole Delga5%–
François Bayrou5%–
Sébastien Lecornu5%–
Bally Bagayoko5%–
Manuel Valls4%–
Philippe de Villiers4%–
Ségolène Royal4%–
Jean Castex4%–
Mathilde Panot4%–
Valérie Pécresse4%–
Karim Bouamrane4%0%
Michel-Edouard Leclerc3%–
Teddy Riner3%▲2%
Laurent Wauquiez3%–
Gérald Darmanin2%–
Clémentine Autain1%–
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · Ostatnie 7 dni · min 92% · maks 96%

Kryteria rozstrzygnięcia (oryginał, po angielsku)

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Osadź ten widżet

Wklej ten kod do artykułu lub na stronę. Widżet aktualizuje się sam: prawdopodobieństwo implikowane przez rynek przed głosowaniem, na żywo w wieczór wyborczy, a potem oficjalny wynik.

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