Accueil › Élections › Élection présidentielle au Brésil : vainqueur du premier tour
Ronaldo Caiado arrivera-t-il en tête du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
<1 %Probabilité
- Variation 1 h
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- Variation 24 h
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- Variation 7 j
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- Clôture
Autres issues de cet événement
| Issue | Probabilité | Variation 24 h |
|---|---|---|
| Lula | 73 % | ▼1 % |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 26 % | ▼1 % |
| Escritor Augusto Cury | <1 % | – |
| Pablo Marçal | <1 % | – |
| Renan Santos | <1 % | – |
Critères de résolution (texte original, en anglais)
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).