Accueil › Élections › Quels candidats accéderont au second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?
Flavio Bolsonaro accédera-t-il au second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?
98 %Probabilité
- Variation 1 h
- –
- Variation 24 h
- ▼1 %
- Variation 7 j
- 0 %
- Clôture
Autres issues de cet événement
| Issue | Probabilité | Variation 24 h |
|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 96 % | ▼1 % |
| Renan Santos | 1 % | – |
| Romeu Zema | 1 % | – |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 1 % | – |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 1 % | 0 % |
| Tarcísio de Freitas | <1 % | 0 % |
| Fernando Haddad | <1 % | 0 % |
Critères de résolution (texte original, en anglais)
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).