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¿Será el Partido Justicia y Bienestar (UCID) el partido con más escaños en las próximas elecciones parlamentarias de Somalilandia?
2 %Probabilidad
- Cambio 1 h
- 0 %
- Cambio 24 h
- 0 %
- Cambio 7 d
- ▲1 %
- Cierre
Otras opciones de este evento
| Opción | Probabilidad | Cambio 24 h |
|---|---|---|
| Sin elecciones antes de 2027 | 98 % | 0 % |
| Kulmiye | <1 % | – |
| Waddani | <1 % | – |
Criterios de resolución (texto original, en inglés)
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).