Próximas elecciones presidenciales de Francia
42 opciones · Cierre
| Opción | Probabilidad | Cambio 24 h |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 38 % | – |
| Édouard Philippe | 22 % | ▼2 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % | – |
| David Lisnard | 8 % | ▲1 % |
| François Hollande | 5 % | 0 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 2 % | 0 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2 % | 0 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 2 % | 0 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 1 % | – |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 1 % | ▲1 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 1 % | – |
| Sarah Knafo | 1 % | – |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1 % | 0 % |
| Ségolène Royal | 1 % | 0 % |
| Christine Lagarde | <1 % | 0 % |
| Olivier Faure | <1 % | 0 % |
| François Baroin | <1 % | – |
| Jean Castex | <1 % | – |
| Marine Tondelier | <1 % | – |
| Karim Bouamrane | <1 % | – |
| François Ruffin | <1 % | – |
| Xavier Bertrand | <1 % | – |
| Carole Delga | <1 % | – |
| Élisabeth Borne | <1 % | – |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | <1 % | – |
| Clémence Guetté | <1 % | – |
| Clémentine Autain | <1 % | – |
| Fabien Roussel | <1 % | – |
| François Asselineau | <1 % | – |
| François Bayrou | <1 % | – |
| Gérald Darmanin | <1 % | – |
| Juan Branco | <1 % | – |
| Laurent Wauquiez | <1 % | – |
| Lucie Castets | <1 % | – |
| Manuel Bompard | <1 % | – |
| Marion Maréchal | <1 % | – |
| Mathilde Panot | <1 % | – |
| Michel Barnier | <1 % | – |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | <1 % | – |
| Valérie Pécresse | <1 % | – |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | <1 % | – |
| Yannick Jadot | <1 % | – |
Criterios de resolución (texto original, en inglés)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).