Brazil Presidential Election

Sun, Oct 4 · in 2 days

Market-implied probability

57% Flávio Bolsonaro

▲2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Nov 2025Oct 2026

43% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

▼1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%
Nov 2025Oct 2026